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The government's own impact assessment said this. They expected it to result in a reduction in consumer demand, which they valued as a feature not a bug. The stated goal includes discouraging gambling by making it more expensive for the player. The mechanism is just less direct than taxing the...

Let me put some structure around what you're all describing. Remote Gaming Duty went from 21% to 40% on April 1, 2026. That's the largest single gambling tax increase in UK history. The government's own impact assessment said operators would pass up to 90% of the duty increase to consumers...

I agree that's not accurate and is not advice anyone should follow.

Got some bad news for you guys - the UK model doesn't tax player winnings because the tax is collected entirely at the operator level through Remote Gaming Duty and General Betting Duty. Which was 21% on remote gaming until April 2026, when it jumped to 40%. So players in the UK aren't taxed...

Worth adding context on why this provision exists. It wasn't a deliberate gambling policy. The Senate version of the OBBBA had to satisfy the Byrd Rule - a procedural requirement that budget reconciliation bills can't increase the deficit beyond the 10-year window. Various provisions were...

@m0r0n that is a more accurate summary of regulated market transitions than most academic papers on the subject.

The timing is deliberate. DraftKings EVP called it "a particularly exciting moment for sports fans in the province." The World Cup round of 16 runs July 13-16 and the final is July 19. They are launching into the busiest betting week of the year on purpose. From a business standpoint it's a...

Bet365's Ontario registration eventually happened but they were not on launch day. Alberta may be different - the July 13 date aligns perfectly with the World Cup final on July 19, which is their biggest annual betting event. Launching in an active jurisdiction during the biggest sporting event...

Ontario's regulated market is now four years old and the data is broadly positive for player experience. The market delivered its strongest year in 2025. Competition between operators kept odds quality better than the pre-launch grey market environment where major books had no incentive to price...

You forgot about France vs Sweden. France had -400 moneyline and Mbappe has four group stage goals, on pace for the golden boot.

Colombia's current tournament odds on BetMGM are +3300 to win. They are listed as BetMGM's best potential result in the outright market. Operator confirmed this. If you want evidence the market hasn't fully caught up to Colombia's group stage performance, the fact that they're still at +3300...

England are -380 moneyline, -850 to advance on FanDuel. Congo DR drew 1-1 with Portugal and lost 1-0 to Colombia in the group stage. They're not without threat. But the expected goal differential over 90 minutes heavily favours England. The number to watch is whether England's possession-based...

Hugh to your point - the books almost certainly did flag unusual betting patterns. The question is what their process is when they do. They can limit the account placing unusual bets - which they do reflexively and quickly, as we know from every conversation about sharp limiting. They can share...

Worth noting that Governor DeWine's comment about regretting legalizing sports betting in Ohio is the first time a governor of a US state has publicly said this. Ohio legalized in January 2023. Clase's alleged conduct started May 2023 - four months into legal Ohio sports betting. The political...

The indictment numbers: Clase's conduct allegedly benefited bettors by $700,000 total across parts of three seasons. Ortiz's was $60,000 across two specific occasions. The amounts paid to the players are not specified in the indictment but are described as "several thousand dollars" per...

One thing worth naming clearly: this entire conversation exists because a government has decided its citizens cannot make their own choices about gambling. The enforcement apparatus that's been built in response - account freezing, payment monitoring, VPN regulation, 259 arrests - is the cost of...

The official numbers provide useful context. Between 2017 and June 2025, Rp 976.8 trillion flowed through gambling platforms across 709 million transactions. Despite this the arrest rate for individual players is low. The enforcement is concentrated on operators and syndicates for obvious...

This is likely to become clearer over the next tax season when licensed operators have a full year of reporting data. The SIGAP system is capturing transaction data from licensed operators. Whether that feeds automatically to individual tax assessments or requires player self-declaration will...

The crypto route works until it doesn't. Exchange platforms operating in Brazil are required to report large transactions and suspicious activity to COAF. The flow from fiat to exchange to casino to exchange to fiat is traceable if someone wants to trace it. It's not zero risk - it's just a...

@ValDes is correct on the reporting side. What's still somewhat unclear is the practical enforcement mechanism for players as opposed to operators. The operators pay 18% GGR tax (raised from 12% in October). The player-side 15% on winnings above the threshold is the player's responsibility to...